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On the morning of January 15, 2025, after 96 hours of negotiations, Israeli and Hamas negotiators agreed to a ceasefire deal, tentatively bringing to an end 15 months of brutal conflict in the Gaza Strip. With agreement in principle, the ceasefire has yet to be approved by the Israeli government as of Wednesday afternoon.
The terms of the agreement
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Duration: the initial ceasefire period will last six weeks, during which both parties will halt military operations. The agreement lays out three phases:
- The first phase details the release of 33 Israeli hostages, mostly women, children, and the elderly, and hundreds of Palestinian women and children in Israeli prisons, as well as the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the return of civilians.
- Details for the second phase are yet to be released, but are contingent upon the ceasefire lasting through the initial 42-day period. All other hostages will be released.
- The third phase outlines the return of remains and a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza.
- Hostage and prisoner exchanges: Hamas will release Israeli hostages taken in the October 7 attacks in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
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Three hostages are said to be released within the first 48 to 72 hours of the deal.
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Multiple American citizens are reported to be among those released in the initial phase.
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Humanitarian aid: the agreement includes provisions to accelerate humanitarian assistance to Gaza to address the devastating crisis faced by the civilian population.
Background
- The war began on October 7, 2023, following Hamas’ attack into Israel that resulted in over 1,000 deaths and the capture of more than 200 hostages taken to Gaza.
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Casualties: over 46,000 civilians have been killed in Gaza since the conflict began, though the local health ministry’s ability to document deaths was severely impeded and estimates range much higher.
International mediation
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The ceasefire was brokered with the assistance of Egyptian and Qatari mediators, supported by the United States, building off the outline of a plan that the Biden administration offered months ago.
- Both the outgoing administration and the incoming Trump administration played roles in facilitating the agreement, with Middle East special envoys Brett McGurk (Biden) and Steven Witkoff (Trump) present for the final stages of the negotiations.
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Leaders around the world have expressed relief in the end to the fighting and hope that the ceasefire will lead to sustained peace and address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Next steps
- The ceasefire's terms, including the exchange of hostages and prisoners and the delivery of humanitarian aid, are expected to be implemented in the coming days.
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Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani noted that there are plans to establish mechanisms to ensure implementation on both sides.
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Future negotiations: the agreement may also pave the way for further discussions on Israel’s relationships in the region, as President-elect Trump signals interest in expanding the Abraham Accords.
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Analysis from Middle East Policy
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Middle East Policy has published Israel’s Wars, a special issue on the war in Gaza that draws on the journal’s decades covering the region to provide insights into the motivations of the key actors. All articles are available to everyone, even without a subscription! | |
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